National carbon offensive programs fall far short of what is needed to prevent dangerous climate change, according to the UN Environment Program.
Their Emissions Gap report says the country’s promises will fail to keep global temperatures below 1.5C for this century.
UNEP analysis suggests that the earth is on the verge of warming at about 2.7C which has a very negative impact.
But it is hoped that, if long-term net-zero targets are achieved, temperatures can be significantly strengthened.
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A few days before COP26 was launched in Glasgow, another scientific report on climate change was “another thunderstorm”, according to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
Now in its 12th year, the Emissions Gap report looks at nationally determined donations (NDCs) or carbon-cutting programs countries have submitted to the UN before the COP.
These commitments reach 2030 and are shipped by 120 countries. UNEP has also considered other obligations to cut off greenhouse gases that have not yet been officially introduced to the NDC.
The report finds that when put together, programs reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 by about 7.5% compared to previous promises made five years ago.
This is not close enough to keep a temperature of 1.5C visible, say the scientists who compiled the study.
Keeping 1.5C alive will require 55% cuts by the same date by 2030. That means current programs will need to have seven times the level of desire to stay below that limit.
“In order to be able to reduce global warming to 1.5C, we have eight years to nearly reduce greenhouse gas emissions: eight years of planning, policy setting, implementation, and ultimately reducing,” said Inger Andersen. the director of UNEP.
“The clock is moving very fast.”
According to the authors, current promises will see the world warm by 2.7C in this century, a situation that Antonio Guterres calls a “climate catastrophe”.
He believes the report highlights the failure of political leaders.
“The greenhouse gas emissions are the result of a leadership gap,” he said at the launch of the study.
As Mr. Guterres suggests, there are indications of optimism in the report.
Nearly 50 countries and the EU have promised a specific goal during this century.
These tricks involve more than half of the greenhouse gas emissions.
Unep’s analysis finds that if these systems were fully operational, this could shave 0.5C at 2100 degrees Celsius.
This will reduce the earth’s temperature to 2.2C, which will see dramatic and dangerous effects of global warming but would be a step in the right direction from the earth’s orbit.
The problem, however, is that many of these holistic goals are unclear, say the authors – especially among the 20 richest countries in the world, where a dozen long-term plans are said to be unclear.
Many delayed major cuts until after 2030, raising serious doubts about whether they could bring zero 20 years later. We have to prevent Climate change
Another promising indicator is related to methane. The report also says there is a good chance that progress will be made in terms of this gas emission, the second-largest source of heat.
Up to 20% of these minerals, waste, and agriculture can be prevented at low cost or for free.
However, the opportunity to develop a more green world as the world recovers from Covid is in danger of being lost, say the authors.
They found that about 20% of re-investments would support a renewable and green economies.
“The huge amount spent on restoring the economy to Covid-19 is a real-time opportunity to develop technologies and the low-carbon industry. In many cases, this opportunity is not taken away,” said Brian O’Callaghan, the project. director of the Oxford University Economic Recovery Project, and author of the UNEP report.
“This is a slap in the face of the most vulnerable nations facing the devastating effects of climate change … we live without the commitment of those who emanate the highest winds to cover the losses and damage they have brought to the world.”